Digital Marketing Blog | Tips for Scaling Revenue Success

Building a Forecasting System B2B Leaders Can Trust

Written by Ryan Wheelock | Sep 29, 2025 5:45:03 PM

If you’ve ever built a revenue forecast that looked strong but collapsed at quarter-end, this episode breaks down why. You’ll learn how to eliminate phantom pipeline deals, align sales and marketing definitions, and avoid the false optimism that keeps forecasts unreliable.

 

Why Most Forecasts Miss the Mark

Jay Feitlinger (CEO) and Sarah Shepard (COO) from StringCan know the pain: inaccurate forecasting wrecks planning for finance, operations, and marketing. Activity often gets confused with progress, deal sizes are exaggerated, and “qualified” doesn’t mean what leaders think it means.

As Sarah put it: “Your pipeline should not be part of the fiction section of the bookstore.”

 

The Three CRM Lies That Break Forecasting

Sarah and Jay see three patterns across sales teams:

  1. Qualified isn’t Closeable

    • 80% of “qualified” leads don’t move beyond the first meeting.

  2. Probability is a Guess

    • Reps assign close percentages based on gut feel, not standardized rules.

  3. Deal Sizes are Inflated

    • Without verified budget or decision dates, numbers are fiction.

These lead to what they call the phantom pipeline. It is a forecast padded with deals that never close.

 

Why Optimism Creates Risk

Sales reps often lean on hope to keep confidence high. Jay admits he’s been guilty of overrating deals that “felt good.” But optimism doesn’t pay salaries or guide hiring.

With sales cycles stretching 12–18 months in B2B, mistaking motion (emails, meetings) for progress (buyer commitment) creates dangerous blind spots for CROs and CMOs.

 

How to Build a Forecasting System You Can Trust

Sarah and Jay recommend focusing less on activity volume and more on pipeline truth:

  • Standardize definitions for qualified leads, probability stages, and deal size.

  • Audit stagnant deals every quarter; if it hasn’t moved, call it out.

  • Incentivize progress, not motion (budget conversations > number of emails).

  • Require problem, budget, and decision date fields for every opportunity.

This creates a healthier revenue culture where sales, marketing, and finance share the same truth.

 

Forecasting FAQs for B2B Leaders

 

Q: What’s a phantom pipeline?
A: A forecast inflated with stalled or dead deals that look good on dashboards but will never close.

Q: Why do “qualified” leads stall?
A: Because most teams define qualified as “had a meeting” instead of verifying the budget, timeline, and real need.

Q: How can CROs test forecast accuracy?
A: Look back at the past 3–4 quarters. If you’re consistently 25–50% off, your definitions and CRM inputs need tightening.

Q: Should I track sales activity?
A: Yes, but activity is secondary. Focus on buyer progress signals that indicate actual movement toward a decision.

Q: How can I coach reps without killing morale?
A: Frame stagnant deal reviews as support, not punishment. Ask, “What can we do to help?” instead of “Why isn’t this closed?”

 

Why Forecasting Trust Matters for Growth

Accurate forecasts are the backbone of smarter planning. Finance can budget with confidence, operations can staff effectively, and marketing can optimize for quality leads instead of vanity metrics.

As Jay put it, “Most sales teams don’t need more leads. They just need better truth about the ones they already have.”

 

Listen to the Full Conversation

For the full breakdown and more actionable strategies, listen to Revenue Rewired: You’re Being Catfished by Your Forecast here. And if you’re ready to build a forecasting system your team can trust, connect with StringCan.